Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, November 27th

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a lack of economic news to drive trading. Stocks are showing gains of 51 points in the Dow and 103 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (0.85%), but weakness late Wednesday should keep this morning’s mortgage rates nearly unchanged.

8/32

Bonds

30 yr - 0.85%

51

Dow

29,923

103

NASDAQ

12,198

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes from the Nov 4-5 FOMC meeting didn’t give us any significant surprises but did bring a couple bits of important information. One was the fact they will hold their current monthly bond buying program at $120 billion per month, helping to keep the mortgage market liquid. Secondly, they discussed options on how to improve guidance to the markets about future bond buying plans. This would help remove surprise changes in their purchases at the time they are bought. The result would be less volatility in bonds that is caused by unannounced changes in the Fed purchases.

Medium

Negative

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

They also signaled the Fed will likely taper and possibly end bond purchases altogether before they start raising key short-term interest rates, which is expected to take place near the end of 2023. Overall, there were no major surprises but enough information to draw attention of bond traders. Bonds did move in the wrong direction after the minutes were posted at 2:00 PM ET. However, they had already weakened from morning levels before they were posted, and it was not enough of a move to fuel widespread intraday rate changes.

Medium

Unknown

Stock Influences

We have no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. If there is an intraday revision to mortgage pricing, it likely will be due to a sizable move in stocks- especially since many firms are on skeleton staff today. That creates thin or light trading that causes a stronger reaction to any headlines than they may usually have.

Low

Neutral

Holiday Schedule

The markets will close early today with stocks closing at 1:00 PM ET and the bond session ending at 2:00 PM ET. All markets will reopen for regular trading hours Monday morning.

---

Unknown

none

Next week does not have a large number of economic reports scheduled for release, but most of what is set to be posted is considered to be important. They will begin late Tuesday morning with November’s ISM manufacturing index and end with the almighty monthly Employment report for November early Friday morning. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Crown Mortgage

620 Woodbrook Dr. Suite 2
Charlottesville, VA 22901
Equal Housing Lender
NMLS #188642 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org)
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